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Trade Winds bimonthly update volume 51

A very warm welcome back to all our valued customers and our best wishes for a positive and successful year ahead.

As we ease into January, herewith a brief update on latest news. We will resume with our full and more comprehensive Tradewinds edition later in the month.

 

Steel increases continue! Once again, the industry was notified of prices increases effective 1 January 2022.

All three major mills in South Africa have increased their pricing on products such as mining bar, smooth round bar, deformed bar, mesh bar and mill rods to name a few in the region of R700 – R850/Ton.

It seems the trend of import parity pricing is set to continue.

The PVC sector has also announced an increase of 8-10% on all products for the month of January, this comes after back-to-back increases totalling a whopping 63% increase on raw product throughout 2021 as well as force majeure announcements amongst global producers last year.

Truck drivers being harassed by ATDF again, eThekwini Metro police dispersed a crowd of illegal protesters who were stopping trucks near the old Durban airport site on Wednesday demanding to see truck drivers’ permits to check whether they are foreign employees or locals.

A post circulated on WhatsApp groups on Wednesday alleged that the protesters were members of the All Truck Drivers’ Forum (ATDF).

However, ATDF denied that it had been behind the protest action.

Road Freight Association has requested that ATDF supply details of non-compliant companies, which it had earlier alleged were flouting labour and tax legislation in the employment of foreign nationals, so that action could be taken against them.

Container shipment delivery times double, Data of container timelines measured by a San Francisco brokerage over the festive season period does not bode well for ongoing delays experienced along the transport value chain.

According to the latest information released, containers going via east trade lanes are taking twice as long as they did in 2019.

Shipments which would take roughly 45-50 days from the States to reach its destination out east are now taking around 110 days to complete the journey, the longest it has ever taken for a shipment from the States to reach Asia.

Moreover it is also noted that it now takes roughly 108 days for container in the Far East to reach its import destination in Europe, pre-pandemic trips would take 55 to 60 days on average.

Container availability is severely impacted across the globe because of double-time holdups on certain trade lines. According to the maritime consultancy’s own data, holdups rose by 9% last year, there are fears that freight rates will increase even more.

Freight rates are expected to climb as Lunar New Year approaches and any additional slow down due to COVID will likely exacerbate the congestion and backlog, causing higher container rates. Container rates quoted for January 2022:

  • Global freight rates decreased 5% to$8,917 which is still 140% higher than this time last year
  • Asia – US West Coast rates decreased 14% to $12,524 which is still 218% higher than this time last year
  • Asia – US East Coast container rates stayed basically the same as the last week of 2021 at $16,495, which is 232% more expensive than last year
  • Asia – North Europecontainer shipping rates also remained level, decreasing 2% to $14,240, nearly double last year’s rate
  • North Europe – US East Coast rates decreased 10% to $6,230, however this is nearly 240% higher than December 2021

Airfreight rates out of China on the down for now, airfreight rates out of China to leading international destinations have fallen 30% since their mid-December peak of $15.13 per kilogram, rates to the United States were at an all-time high but has since sharply decreased to $10.68.

China-Europe rates, in comparison, are down 17% to $7.34 p/kg since reaching a festive season peak of $8.82 by the end of December.

With indications that port-side constraints and associated containerisation shortfalls will continue to put pressure on efficient flows, expectations are that a likely airfreight rate rise is again on the cards.

 

 

“Life is like a coin. You can spend it any way you wish, but you only spend it once.”

 

Trade Winds bimonthly update volume 27

Steel increase! as of last week Friday ArcelorMittal and other major mills in South Africa announced a further price hike in the region of 5% for February with further impending increases as the year goes on. This is putting an unbelievable amount of pressure on the steel sector in South Africa, coupled with the latest indefinite load shedding schedule, manufacturing, distribution and logistics have become a nightmare for all involved.

South Africa’s economy faces challenges, the decline in manufacturing production growth in November last year is a clear indication that South Africa’s economy is in for a rough ride to recovery, especially under the current adjusted level 3 Covid-19 pandemic restrictions.

It is noted that production declined by -3.5% year on year in November 2020, and at the same time also declined -1.3% month on month from October 2020, down from a growth of 3.2% from September 2020 to October 2020.

“The manufacturing sector remains key to the growth and development of South Africa due to its spill-over effect into other sectors of the economy such as the construction sector, especially through the Metals and Engineering (M&E) sector, which remains the major supplier of crucial inputs such as steel,” said Seifsa chief economist Chifipa Mhango. “The data released suggest a worsening trend following a slower decline in the previous months,” he added.

Record gold production achieved! Gold producers Caledonia Mining Corporation produced a record 57 899 oz of gold from the Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe during 2020 with an approximate of 15 012 oz of gold produced during the fourth quarter of 2020.

2020 is a record year for Caledonia who are also on track for the commissioning of Central Shaft to be completed in the first quarter of 2021.

In December Caledonia also announced that they had entered into option agreements on two properties in Zimbabwe, delivering on their strategy of organic growth whilst increasing the dividend for a fourth time at the start of January to 11 cents a share

It seems that the sky is the limit for Caledonia at the moment and their plans are paying of whilst also creating genuine value and returns for their shareholders

Zambian government claims Glencore stake, Zambia’s state mining investment arm ZCCM-IH has agreed to buy Glencore’s majority stake in Mopani Copper Mines in a $1.5 billion deal funded by debt and will seek a new investor, the government said earlier this week.

The sale follows Glencore’s attempt to suspend operations at the mine last year due to the low copper prices and COVID-19 disruptions which then prompted a government threat to revoke the company’s mining licences.

The takeover coincides with Zambia’s preparations for elections in August, with President Edgar Lungu courting voters in the copper belt. More than 15,000 workers would have lost their jobs if the mine was closed.

Glencore will continue to control buying rights for Mopani’s copper output until the transaction debt has been repaid which will be paid by giving Glencore creditors 3% of Mopani’s gross revenue from 2021-2023 and 10-17.5% of Mopani’s gross revenue from then on.

The country will have to attract new investors, it is said that companies from Britain, Canada, China, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar have expressed interest.

Political violence stops cargo movement, Cross-border movement in both directions through the Copperbelt crossing of Kasumbalesa between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has ground to a halt because of political unrest.

Protest flared up in the town of Kasumbalesa north of the border which unfortunately effected the flow of freight through the border.

A crucial transit on the North-South Line into the DRC’s copper mining areas in Haut-Katanga province, Kasumbalesa has been quiet and free-flowing over the last few months.

Challenges in the past have regularly caused congestion at the border however the events earlier this week represent the first time in months that Kasumbalesa, rather than other NSL crossings like Chirundu and Beitbridge, has led to cargo on the NSL coming to a halt.

Port of Beira shuts shop as storm Eloise approaches, The Port of Beira is taking no chances as storm Eloise spins in a south-easterly direction towards the coastline of Mozambique, although the eye of the storm was expected to pass south of the port and make landfall today in the vicinity of Vilankulos which is roughly 500 kilometres south of Beira, the latest update is showing that the storm is going to hit the port directly.

The last time the city of Beira had to contend with a severe weather event was in March 2019 when Idai cut a path across the old city, these days the focal point of intensified reinvestment as Mozambique positions its ports for ramped-up logistics.

The SA Weather Service has warned that the cyclone, much like Idai, will increase in intensity as it makes its way across the channel’s warmer water with an anticipated speed of 166-213 kilometres an hour by the time it hits the coast.

From there it’s expected to make its way across Mozambique’s provinces of Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo further inland.

Authorities in South Africa’s provinces of Limpopo and Mpumalanga have been on high alert, with rain and extreme wind predicted despite Eloise expectedly losing force the further it moves into the interior. 

Calls for the US and France to assist, African Energy Chamber chief executive NJ Ayuk is appealing to the United States and France to intervene in the insurrectionist violence currently threatening resource exploration in Mozambique.

Such a move is crucial not only to protect the liquid natural gas interests of ExxonMobil, the US multinational petroleum company involved in Cabo Delgado province, but also to secure the continent’s energy prospects.

There has also been appeals to France to do the same on behalf of Total, the other major multinational that has invested billions in Mozambique’s LNG fields south of its Rovuma Basin border with Tanzania.

Government leaders will need to reach out to militant groups and begin a confidence- and trust-building process that will hopefully lead up to a mutual ceasefire agreement.

In this respect, US and French diplomatic involvement could prove fundamentally important in defusing the powder keg situation in Cabo Delgado.

2021 will be “the decisive year” for defeating terrorism in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado, according to the newly elected Maj-Gen Eugenio Mussa.

He called on Mozambican troops to act rigorously, to wipe out definitively the armed groups that have been terrorising several Cabo Delgado districts since October 2017.

French owned Tota has ordered a temporary evacuation of some of its workers from the Afungi Peninsula, an area which has experienced one of the most recent attacks by the insurgents.

 

 

“Don’t set sail on someone else’s star”